How the predictions are doing
Four from six. A coin gets three. The machine ran twenty thousand simulated weeks, correlated every quarterback with his own receivers, and finished one game better than a coin — while calling the league median eight points high. It is on the page because a prediction that only gets published when it was right is not a prediction, it is a scrapbook.
The season
Before the games Week 2
The only game between unbeatens headlines it, two 0-2 teams are staring at 0-4, and the projected median drops to 120.2.
Worth watching
- I don't know ball (2-0) at Witter? I hardly know her (2-0) — the only meeting of unbeaten teams, and the largest projected gap on the board at 11.7 points. The winner is alone at the top.
- skinsfreeek (0-2) and Team Ridge (0-2) are both projected to lose again. In a 34-result season an 0-4 hole is recoverable on paper and almost never in practice.
- Ghost of John Clayton at BustyMcClobbers projects within seven tenths of a point — the closest game of the week, and both teams are 1-1 in a crowded middle where six of twelve make the playoffs.
The games — open one for the write-up
skinsfreeek
113.7
pred
@
whitebread37
124.2
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
I don't know ball
134.6
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
@
Witter? I hardly know her
122.9
pred
Team Ridge
113.9
pred
@
NotAIBot
125.8
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
Saquon Deez Nuts
129.9
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
@
Dios mio, man
117.1
pred
Ghost of John Clayton
125.1
pred
@
BustyMcClobbers
125.8
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
Lamar you Serious
116.4
pred
@
CD
CEE DEE EEE EFF GEE
119.4
pred
NOT AI PREDICTED
Played Week 1
Two unbeatens separated themselves, the bottom three lost twice, and the league median quietly handed out six extra losses nobody mentioned.
Worth watching
- Saquon Deez Nuts 178.7 beat Ghost of John Clayton 166.52 — the two highest scores in the league, in the same game, decided on Monday night.
- Three teams went 0-2 in week one. In a median league that is not a slow start, it is a quarter of the way to missing the playoffs.
The games — open one for the write-up
skinsfreeek
66.4
pred 127.0
@
NotAIBot
110.4
pred 127.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
HIT
I don't know ball
176.1
pred 128.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
HIT
@
CD
CEE DEE EEE EFF GEE
122.8
pred 122.0
Team Ridge
106.3
pred 126.0
@
BustyMcClobbers
110.3
pred 127.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
HIT
Saquon Deez Nuts
178.7
pred 125.0
@
Ghost of John Clayton
166.5
pred 132.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
MISS
Witter? I hardly know her
158.9
pred 123.0
@
Dios mio, man
118.1
pred 128.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
MISS
Lamar you Serious
90.6
pred 119.0
@
whitebread37
113.2
pred 127.0
NOT AI PREDICTED
HIT
Tuesday Week 1 — Recap
Twelve teams, six games, and a league median of 115.7 that half of this league will spend the season pretending does not exist. It exists. You play it every week. It does not care who you drew.
The headline is that the two best scores in the league landed in the same game. Saquon Deez Nuts 178.7, Ghost of John Clayton 166.52, decided on Monday night by a quarterback and a receiver walking in late. Ghost put up a number that beats ten of the other eleven teams and is 1-1.
At the other end, three managers went 0-2 — beaten by an opponent and by the median in the same afternoon. skinsfreeek managed sixty-six points with four quarterbacks on the roster, which takes a particular kind of commitment.
And the quiet one: NotAIBot won by forty-four and still went 1-1, because 110.42 missed the median by five. Winning your game is half the job here. Six teams found that out at once.
Where it started The Draft, In Full Twelve men, seventeen rounds, one format nobody read
Superflex. TWELVE teams, TWO quarterbacks in the lineup every single week, which is twenty-four starting quarterbacks out of a league that has thirty-two of them and about nineteen you'd actually want. That number was printed on the settings page. It was printed there in September. It has been printed there the whole time.
Six of you drafted like it said one.
There were sixty-nine picks before the fourth round ended — nice — and in that stretch you had blokes taking their THIRD running back while the quarterback pool got eaten alive in front of them like a tray of sandwiches at a funeral. Then round six hits and suddenly everybody's interested. Suddenly everybody's a scout. Suddenly it's "oh I'll take Baker" like Baker Mayfield's been sat there because nobody noticed him and not because you spent four picks building a fantasy team for a format that doesn't exist.
Special mention to the three of you who named your team after a player and then didn't draft him. That's not a strategy, that's a cry for help with a logo on it.
And to the lad who took FOUR quarterbacks — four! — and then put up sixty-six points in week one, the lowest score in the league by a distance you could measure with a car odometer: buddy, you hoarded the scarce thing and still starved. That takes a special kind of commitment. Give your mom a call, she's the only one still telling people you researched this.
Anyway. Good draft, everyone.
Team by team
1 I don't know ball Right about the name, wrong about everything else, winning anyway Gibbs → Jefferson → Jeanty → Rice → McMillan
2 Saquon Deez Nuts Named the team after a man he did not draft Bijan → McBride → Henry → Mahomes → Flowers
3 CEE DEE EEE EFF GEE Also named after a man he did not draft. It's going around Josh Allen → Walker → Hampton → Loveland → McConkey
4 skinsfreeek Four quarterbacks, sixty-six points Chase → Herbert → Chase Brown → Smith → Waddle
5 Dios mio, man Three receivers, then remembered the format JSN → Nacua → Collins → Love → Stafford
6 Team Ridge Lost by four. Drafted four quarterbacks. Started one McCaffrey → Prescott → A.J. Brown → Skattebo → Wilson
7 Witter? I hardly know her Drafted it properly and it's ruining the joke Taylor → C. Williams → London → Nabers → Purdy
8 Ghost of John Clayton Best quarterback room in the league, still lost Hurts → St. Brown → Lawrence → Etienne → Warren
9 Lamar you Serious Two quarterbacks. One of them was Bo Nix on a Monday Lamar → Barkley → Bowers → Nix → Higgins
11 whitebread37 Drake Maye at eleven, then nothing for six rounds Maye → Achane → Hall → Olave → Egbuka
12 BustyMcClobbers Jaxson Dart. Fourth round. Superflex. QB1 Cook → Lamb → Kyren → Dart → Pitts
NotAIBot is not reviewed here. It is, of course, neither run nor managed by an AI bot, and is therefore above criticism by definition.